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prediction

How fickle should a forecaster be?

Aram’s Lair of Mad Science

Suppose one day, I say to you that there’s a 20% chance of rain next weekend. Or that there’s a 20% chance of Donald Trump being elected for another term as President of the United States. Upon reading about some scandal the next day, I revise my prediction to 85%. By nighttime the matter settles,...

Minority Report: Predicting Criminal Intent (From chapter four of Films from the Future)

Andrew Maynard

There’s something quite enticing about the idea of predicting how people will behave in a given situation. It’s what lies beneath personality profiling and theories of preferred team roles. But it also extends to trying to predict when people will behave badly, and taking steps to prevent this......

Understanding overfitting: an inaccurate meme in supervised learning

msuzen

Kindly reposted to KDnuggets by Gregory Piatetsky-Shapiro with the title Understanding overfitting: an inaccurate meme in machine learning Preamble There is a lot of confusion among practitioners regarding the concept of overfitting. It seems like, a kind of an urban legend or a meme, a folklore...