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monetary policy

Monetary policy uncertainty relatively stable

Mark Rzepczynski

Everyone in the bond markets has been talking about Fed Chair Warsh and his changing views on forward guidance. His policy stance is clear. He does not want to give forward guidance. He will reduce guidance to the minimum. Markets have reacted to this with much wailing, yet we need to focus on the...

The failure of forward guidance or what should we expect

Mark Rzepczynski

Analysts are calling it a failure of the Fed's new forward guidance policy. The policy, of course, is no forward guidance. Given Fed Chairman Warsh is not going to tell the market much about the intention of Fed policy other than "it will not waver" from trying to fight inflation, the market will...

Warsh and the star-studded task forces

Mark Rzepczynski

Chairman Warsh has announced the members of his task forces for review of Fed policies. I am impressed by the choices and the seriousness with which you are trying to provide fresh perspectives on some key problems. This is not an internal review but includes both business and academic thinkers...

Warsh and forward guidance - NOT

Mark Rzepczynski

What is clear from the first Warsh press conference is that he will not provide forward guidance on the Fed’s actions. Chairman Warsh is not going to tell the market anything about what the Fed may be doing in the immediate future.Governor Waller, on the other hand, provided a spirited defense of...

Data dependence as "constrained discretion"

Mark Rzepczynski

Ben Bernanke and Rick Mishkin called the use of data dependence in monetary policy "constrained discretion". We are in another of those periods of constrained discretion regarding inflation and monetary policy. Robert Hetzel, a former Fed economist, said that policymaking has a flavor of "guess...