Allen Lau
Software is not dead. It is about to be everywhere.Earlier this year, GitHub COO Kyle Daigle said GitHub is now seeing 275M commits per week, versus about 1B commits in all of 2025. Annualized, that implies a pace of roughly 14.3B commits this year, or about 14x last year’s total.It is not a...
Allen Lau
At the beginning of this year, I wrote an op-ed for The Globe about what many were already calling the AI bubble. Nearly a year later, almost all of what I said remains true. The piece was always meant to be a largely evergreen, long term view rather than a knee jerk reaction. The only...
Allen Lau
In 1865, William Stanley Jevons, an English economist, observed a curious phenomenon: as steam engines in Britain became more efficient, coal use didn’t fall — it rose. Efficiency lowered the cost of using coal, which made it more attractive, and demand surged. That insight became known as...
Allen Lau
The cost of intelligence is dropping at an unprecedented rate. Just as the drop in the cost of computing unlocked the PC era and the drop in the cost of connectivity enabled the internet era, falling costs today are driving explosive demand for AI adoption. That demand creates opportunity on the...
Allen Lau
Summary Driven by rapid advances in AI, the collapse in the cost of intelligence has arrived—bringing massive disruption and generational opportunities. Building on this platform shift, TSF invests in the next frontier of computing and its applications, backing early-stage products,...
Allen Lau
Note: One of the most common pieces of feedback we receive from entrepreneurs is that TSF partners don’t think, act, or speak like typical VCs. The Contrarian Series is meant to demystify this, so founders know more about us before pitching. Just before New Year, I was speaking at the TBDC...
Allen Lau
“Deep Tech” is one of those terms that gets thrown around a lot in venture capital and startup circles, but defining it precisely is harder than it seems. If you check Wikipedia, you’ll find this: Deep technology (deep tech) or hard tech is a classification of organization, or more typically a...
Allen Lau
This is the picture I used to open our 2024 AGM a few months ago. It highlights how drastically the landscape has changed in just the past couple of years. I told a similar story to our LPs during the 2023 AGM, but now, the pace of change has accelerated even further, and the disruption is crystal...
Allen Lau
In previous blog posts (here and here), I’ve delved into the mathematical model for constructing an early-stage VC portfolio designed to achieve outsized returns. In short, investing early to build a concentrated portfolio of fewer than 20 moonshot companies, each with the potential for 100x...
Allen Lau
TLDR – 20 companies in a VC portfolio is the optimal balance between risk and reward, offering a very high chance of hitting outsized returns without significant risk of losing money. This is exactly the approach we follow at Two Small Fish Ventures, as we keep our per-fund portfolio size limited...
Allen Lau
There’s an old saying that goes, “Know the rules of the game, and you’ll play better than anyone else.” Let’s take baseball as our example. Aiming for a home run often means accepting a higher number of strikeouts. Consider the legendary Babe Ruth: he was a leader in both home runs and strikeouts,...