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causality

Inducing time-asymmetry on reversible classical statistical mechanics via Interventional Thermodynamic Ensembles (ITEs).

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Preamble Probably, one of the most fundamental issue in classical statistical mechanics is extending reversible dynamics to many-particle systems that behaves irreversibly. In other words, how time's arrow appears even though constituted systems evolves in reversible dynamics. This is the main...

Introducing: Stator

Abel Jansma

In my PhD thesis, I developed a method and software package to infer interactions and cell states from gene expression data. Both the software and the research are now published! The software is called Stator, and comprises the Stator Nextflow pipeline, as well as a bespoke Shiny app developed by...

Mathematical Definition of Heuristic Causal Inference: What differentiates DAGs and do-calculus?

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Preamble David Hume (Wikipedia)Experimental design is not a new concept and randomised control trials (RCTs) are our solid gold standard of doing quantitative research, when no apparent physical laws are available to validate observations.  However, it is very expensive to design RCTs, not ethical...

Practical causal ordering: Why weighted-Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are powerful for causal inference?

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Preamble Fractal Tree (Wikipedia)A quiet causal inference revolution is underway in industry. We see immense success of transformers deep learning architectures. However their success should also be attributed to causal modelling. Large Language Models (LLMs), specially closed-sourced ones,...

Loschimidt's Paradox and Causality: Can we establish Pearlian expression for Boltzmann's H-theorem?

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Boltzmann (Wikipedia)Post covers the papers: H-theorem do-conjecture, M. Süzen,  arxiv:2310.01458 (2023) PreambleProbably the most important achievement for humans is the ability to produce scientific discoveries, that  helps us objectively understand how nature works and build artificial tools...

Misconceptions on non-temporal learning: When do machine learning models qualify as prediction systems?

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Preamble    Babylonian Tablet for square root of 2. (Wikipedia)Prediction implies a mechanics, as in knowing a form of a trajectory over time.  Strictly speaking a predictive system implies knowing a solution to the path, set of variable depending on time, time evolution of the system under...

The Arrow of Time

Aram’s Lair of Mad Science

Apologies for taking so long to follow up on the probability post. I was floored by its engagement on Hacker News, with over 200 thoughtful comments! I’ve revised the post to incorporate all your feedback. Now to unveil the secret behind that post: it was a part of my preparation for a very...

Building robust AI systems: Is an artificial intelligent agent just a probabilistic boolean function?

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Preamble    George Boole (Wikipedia)Agent, AI agent or an intelligent agent is used often to describe algorithms or AI systems that are released by research teams recently. However, the definition of an intelligent agent (IA) is a bit opaque. Naïvely thinking, it is nothing more than a decision...

The fundamental problem of causal inference: causality resource list Looper

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Preamble One of the main tenants of practical data science is performing statistical inference on data sets which are assumed to be representations of populations of activity, natural or man-made. A specific case is called causal inference, which probably the core interest of decision makers...